Friday, December 4, 2009

Sorting Out the AFC Wildcard Race


The NFL season is hitting the home stretch and the wildcard race is heating up. With Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Denver, and the NY Jets leading the four divisions, that leaves Indianapolis, Baltimore, New England, and Miami all alive in the wildcard race. Baltimore is a game back of Pittsburgh and New England is a game back of the Jets, so those are subject to change.
The Indianapolis Colts are now 8-4 and with their favorable schedule it appears that they will snag one of these slots. With Peyton Manning back into form and the defen! se slowly improving this team could run the table and end up 12-4. Bob Sanders of course is the biggest key for the defense. Sanders did not play yesterday, but the Colts D still held Cleveland to a mere 6 points in a 10-6 win, including the defense scoring the only TD of the game. Joseph Addai has struggled the majority of the season running the ball, putting even more pressure on the passing game. Dominic Rhodes has been helpful on third down, but is not a featured back. If the defense holds they will improve with Sanders return and if Addai can get back into form this team is a serious Super Bowl contender. They will be in the playoffs this season as a wildcard team.
The Baltimore Ravens continue to shock the NFL as they improved to 8-4 yesterday after stomping the lowly Bengals 34-3. Rookie QB Joe Flacco continues to get the job done, not just managing the game, but making big plays in crunch time. Head coach John Harbaugh has done a great job in his first season developing these seemingly depleted team. The defense is still one of the NFL's elite and as of right now, the Ravens hold the 6th and final playoff slot. Will it last? I do not think so. Lets take a look at the schedule. Next up they host Washington which will be a tough game. The Skins will be hungry after a tough loss to the Giants. After that Pittsburgh rolls into town, the Baltimore must head to Dallas to take on the red hot Cowboys, and then finish up at home against Jacksonville. The Pittsburgh and Dallas games I give them losses meaning the best they can do is 10-6. They could easily los! e to Washington and end up 9-7. Is it enough? Well lets look at NE and Miami to see.
The Patriots were pummeled by Pittsburgh yesterday 33-10. Matt Cassel had a rough day along with the entire team. The Pats are now 7-5 and a game back in both the AFC East and wildcard race. But, NE schedule is very favorable down the stretch. Seattle and Oakland are the next two opponents and both should be beaten easily. They finish up at home against Arizona and then in Buffalo. Arizona did not look very good on Thanksgiving agains! t Philly and I expect NE to beat them as well. But, the final! game wi ll be very difficult. Now I know Buffalo just lost to SF 10-3, but it is a division rivalry game on the road. The Bills will be thinking spoiler. But, I see the Pats escaping a tight one and finishing 11-5. This record means the Pats could win the AFC East. Nonetheless I think the Jets only lose one more and both finish 11-5. Thus eliminating the Ravens. One other team is still very alive at 7-5 in the Miami Dolphins. They have Buffalo, San Francisco, and Kansas City the next three weeks. I think they win 2 of 3 and then they have a date with the Jets in New York. This will be a tight one. I do not foresee Miami running the table, but 10 wins is a huge possibility.
In the end, Indianapolis and New England/ NY Jets get the two wildcard spots with Baltimore and Miami just missing. It will be an exciting race.